By Azubuike Ibemesi
The outlook for food security in 2024 in West Africa and the Sahel is bleak. This projection is contained in the 2024 “Global Report on Food Crises” (GFRC), which anticipates that persistent conflicts, further associated displacement movements, and lingering economic shocks “are expected to maintain high levels of acute food insecurity in 2024” in the region.
The report added that “this situation is likely to be exacerbated by localised climate shocks during the 2023 agricultural season in certain countries, despite average seasonal rainfall leading to overall favourable agricultural and pastoral conditions.”
The report also painted a grim picture of the food security situation in 2023 in the region. It stated that 44.3 million people, or 11 percent of the analysed population, faced high levels of acute food insecurity across 14 countries in 2023.
Additionally, 109.4 million people were in a stressed food crisis across these 14 countries. Compared with 2022, the number of people in a stressed situation significantly increased in the region. This reflected worsening conditions, as the increasing share of the population in this phase from 26 percent to 29 percent corresponded to a decrease in the share of the population experiencing minimal food crisis from 62 percent to 59 percent.
The report also stated that there were 9.7 million forcibly displaced people in 13 food-crisis countries in 2023. This number includes 7.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) and 2.2 million refugees and asylum seekers. It added that 14 million acutely malnourished children could be found in 14 food-crisis countries, with 3.9 million of them suffering the most severe form of wasting.
Nine countries were classified as major food crises, with Nigeria having by far the largest population facing high acute food insecurity, followed by Burkina Faso, Niger, Cameroon, Chad, Senegal, Mali, Sierra Leone, and Côte d’Ivoire, each surpassing one million people in these areas.
The report attributed the worsening food security in West Africa and the Sahel to weather extremes, economic shocks, and escalating conflicts, mostly in Sahelian countries. These factors combined to sustain the high levels of acute food insecurity in 2023.
The report noted that “Chad, Liberia, and Senegal experienced worsening acute food insecurity since 2022, while other countries, such as Mauritania and Guinea, saw significant improvements, thanks to favourable agricultural outputs and the impacts of humanitarian assistance.”
However, populations in severely conflict-affected areas of Burkina Faso and Mali are facing a catastrophic food crisis.
The region experienced a major displacement crisis driven by worsening conflicts, with
hundreds of thousands of refugees arriving in eastern Chad from the Sudan.
The region is facing a worrying child and maternal nutrition situation, fueled by food insecurity, limited access to basic services, and poor nutritional practices,” the report stated.
How has the food crisis in this region changed since 2022? According to the report, the overall share of the population facing high levels of acute food insecurity has decreased slightly since 2022, when it was the highest in CH history at 12.5 percent of the population analyzed. Worsening security conditions and economic shocks also contributed to increases in Chad, Liberia, and Senegal.
Conversely, Mauritania and Guinea saw over 40 percent reductions in the number of highly acutely food-insecure people, followed by Mali, Sierra Leone, Niger, and Cameroon, mostly due to overall favorable crop and pastoral production.
Burkina Faso and Togo saw marginal year-on-year improvements but maintained high levels of acute food insecurity.
Year-on-year comparisons were not feasible in Benin and Côte d’Ivoire, as neither country was included in the GRFC 2023, as well as in Chad due to an increase in the population analyzed, with the notable inclusion of the capital city in the analysis in July 2023.
Severity Of Acute Food Insecurity
All 14 food crises in the region had CH analyses with data disaggregated by the phase of acute food insecurity.
The report stated that 45,200 people were trapped in a catastrophic food crisis across two countries. Around 42,700 of them were in the Sahel and Boucle du Mouhoun regions of Burkina Faso between June and August 2023, where worsening conflict and insecurity severely impeded the functioning of markets and prevented populations from adequately accessing basic foods, with some areas under a security blockade.
According to the report, this number of people in a catastrophic situation represented the highest on record for Burkina Faso, nearly doubling from 22,500 people during March–May 2023.
“The remaining 2,500 people in Catastrophe (CH Phase 5) were in the Ménaka region of Mali during June–August 2023, with conflict and high population displacement at the root of these conditions.
“This represents the first time in CH history that people have faced this most severe form of acute food insecurity in Mali.
Compared with 2022, this situation marks an improvement in Nigeria, from 3,000 people estimated in this phase in October–December 2022 to none in 2023,” the report stated.
It also mentioned that 2.7 million people were in an emergency food situation across 13 countries. Out of the 14 countries with disaggregated data, all had populations in CH Phase 4 except Côte d’Ivoire.
“The severity of acute food insecurity was higher among Sahelian countries such as Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Mali, reflecting the effects of protracted conflict and insecurity.
“Nigeria had the largest number of people in CH Phase 4, mostly in northern states, while Burkina Faso had the highest share of people in this phase at nearly 3.0 percent. Cameroon, Chad, Liberia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo experienced increases in the number of people in CH Phase 4 since 2022, indicating more severe conditions.
“Conversely, Guinea, Mauritania, and Niger saw significant reductions, suggesting improvements in food access and availability, particularly in remote conflict-affected areas,” the report said.
The report further stated that in Burkina Faso and Mali, a reduction in the population in CH Phase 4 occurred alongside increases in the population in Catastrophe (CH Phase 5), indicating a deterioration in severity for populations in areas severely affected by conflicts.
In most conflict-affected countries with high numbers of displaced people—Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Nigeria, and Niger—some percentage of their analyzed population was in Crisis (CH Phase 3), while in Mali, the prevalence of people in this phase stood at 5.0 percent.
Among countries that were mostly affected by economic shocks, Sierra Leone had the highest prevalence, about 15 percent, followed by Mauritania and Liberia.
The report noted that the share of the analyzed population in Crisis (CH Phase 3) slightly increased from 10 to 11 percent since 2022.
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