By Ben Eguzozie
Many development analysts are of the strong belief that ‘real democracy’ is the solution to West Africa region’s myriad development challenges. For Marwane Ben Yahmed, an analyst at Jeune Afrique, “contrary to what some think (about democracy), including those who blame it in every putsch or political crisis; democracy is not the problem. She is the way to go”. The direct import of this is that the absence of real democracy is the bane of development in West Africa — occasioned by massive youth unemployment (6.8% as of 2022), weak economy, poor infrastructural base, and a cumulative leadership deficit. Development is measured using the Human Development Index of the United Nations. HDI is calculated using the average life expectancy, level of education, and income for each country in the world. A direct corollary of the absence of ‘real democracy’ occasioned by free and pluralist elections, freedom of information, expression and demonstration, independent judiciary, and the rule of law, had been largely behind decades of coups d’état in West Africa. Tim Kipp, an American retired history and political science teacher of 39 years, and a political activist since 1960s, says that: “real democracy is the equal access of all people to the power that influences our economic and political lives (gender, class, sexual orientation, colour)… a perpetually evolving system, where the people have relatively equal access to economic and political power… (it) happens at work — when workers have a fair share of the fruits of their labours and control over the work process… (it) recognizes that private property does not give license to exploit workers for higher profits; and recognizes that where you find political power you also find economic power. And vice versa”.
Punctuated history since independence
Poor democratic leadership across West African nations has led to widespread discontent amid eroding public confidence in institutions of democratic governance in the region.
Since independence, the West Africa region’s history has been alarmingly punctuated by a long succession of coups d’état. Political power has remained eminently militarised. Weak governance has brought about low government legitimacy and “clientelistic policies” which serves as excuse for coup plotters,according to a Brookings report. In Chad, a warlike nature of power has been perpetuated continuously since 1975. Niger Republic, which fell into a military dictatorship in 1974, today comes off with a sad history where its elected president is almost an anomaly in the political landscape of the region. West Africa region’s 16 countries are home to estimated 429 million people, or 5.16% of the world population, according to UN population division (Feb 2023). It also has a combined GDP of more than $725 billion, representing 0.75% of the global GDP. Nigeria, the region’s powerhouse, with GDP of $446.5 billion and 210 million people, accounts for more than half the region’s GDP and population. Fifteen of the region’s 16 countries are members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
Poor democratic leadership across West African nations has led to widespread discontent amid eroding public confidence in institutions of democratic governance in the region. All this has translated to political instability with military coups d’état a trending phenomenon. Since the beginning of 2021, military seizures of power have taken place in Guinea, Mali (twice), and Burkina Faso in early 2022. This 2023 alone, seven military coups have taken place in Guinea (Conakry), Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger Republic, Chad, Sudan, and Gabon, signaling what analysts described as “a sign of failed democracies” in the affected countries. Guinea and Mali are expressive of the broader trend in the region.
Coups d’état in West Africa have had a rate unobserved elsewhere since before the adoption of the Lomé Declaration in July 2000, which debarred coups, adopting sanctions against anyone or group that takes power through a coup. Since 1952 to date, 75 coups have happened in West Africa, with about half of these successful. The seven coups this year alone point to the utter failure of the Lomé declaration. Jonathan Powell and Clayton Thyne, two US researchers, in a study listed poverty and poor economic performance as conditions common for coups. “When a country has one coup, that’s often a harbinger for more coups,” Powell said. But Ndubuisi Ani from the University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, adduced the cause to long-serving (sittight) dictators.
poor development amid surfeit of resources
… West African national governments have hardly been able to translate these resources into economic growth and development.
Despite an overabundance of natural resources, like crude oil (with total production at 1.8 billion barrels per day, and proven reserves at slightly 38 billion barrels by 2021), diamond, gold, uranium, copper, bauxite, among many others, West African national governments have hardly been able to translate these resources into economic growth and development. Socially, majority of the region’s nations still rank in the low human development index (low-HDI) group. It has 54% of literate adult population against Southern Africa’s 80% literacy rate, North Africa’s 71%, and East Africa’s 67.5%. HDI is calculated from school enrolment (35.6% average which is 15% in Niger Republic and 55% in Cape Verde. Though Ghana along with Cape Verde fall in medium-HDI group, while Nigeria is in the low-HDI group. International average is 72%.
Leadership deficit bane of development
In particular, Nigeria, the regional giant, has had over six decades of mal-administration, corruption and poor economic policies
Older generation of West Africa’s leaders blamed their region’s underdevelopment to the Trans-Atlantic and Arab slave trade of 1525-1866, as well as colonial rule. They attributed their individual country’s socio-economic and political failure to the Atlantic slave trade and colonialism. But evidence points clearly to two factors: weakness of institutions, and extreme personalisation of power. The region’s latter-day leaders exhibited the second failure Political instability and unrest divert the energies of governments and the people factor — extreme personalisation of power. Added to this are: frail judicial system, weak healthcare, feeble functional education, scarcity of infrastructure like roads, bridges, housing, transportation, others; weak democratic institutions. All these pervade the region’s landscape. In particular, Nigeria, the regional giant, has had over six decades of maladministration, corruption, and poor economic policies. Since 2015 to date, the country has seen its worst administration ever. Record inflation, and rising youth unemployment, with two successive economic recessions (2016–2018 and 2020–2021). This 2023, extensive condemnation has trailed the country’s presidential and national elections’ conduct and outcomes. The two elections held almost one month apart recorded reported incidents of violence, ballot box snatching, and voter suppression. According to the Freedom House 2023 Global Freedom report, the Nigerian high voter suppression highlighted a fall in regional and global freedom. John Campbel, of the US Council on Foreign Relations, said, poor political leadership informs the bad governance that is Africa’s greatest barrier to s o c i a l a n d e c o n o m i c development.
Impact of instability on economic growth and development
A Brookings report (of February 2023) warned that insecurity, if unchecked, could erase West Africa’s economic development gains. The report traced the significant and growing risk of regional instability which was the offshoot of the calamities of the 1990s and 2000s when civil wars overwhelmed Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, and Niger, with Nigeria facing insurgencies to date. All these have hampered the region’s economic growth and development.
A recent World Bank data indicated that between 1990 and 2021, West Africa’s GDP grew, net of inflation, at a compound annual rate of 4%. But on a per capita basis, this came to only 1.3% blighted by rapid population growth. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to the region were low. An UNCTAD report said FDI inflow to West Africa declined by 11% to $11.3 billion by 2019. Trade has been flat. Development assistance has been progressively decreasing. Of much worry today, is the region’s youthful population of 429 million, growing at 2.5% annually, according to UN population division — which risks being caught in a channel of insecurity and stalled development.
The take-home of West Africa’s political instability, including its impacts through worse governance, rising military spending, and forgone investment, has no doubt, affected the region’s average HDI, which was as of 2021, barely 0.5, which suggestively trails other developing regions.
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