Climate Change: meeting up with response to NDC

By Ben Eguzozie

Climate change is dramatically altering anticipations and livelihoods in West Africa. The area is among the regions witnessing the harshest consequences of climate variability. Growth is being compromised by climate eccentricities, with persistent droughts and encroaching deserts laying bare the vulnerability of the region, including the Sahel of Africa.

These oddities have driven many lives in the region into misery and intensified migration.

These oddities have driven many lives in the region into misery and intensified migration. Hence, at the Paris Agreement of COP 21 in December 2015, nations agreed, on a long-term, to combat climate change. The agreement was on the mitigation of the effects of climate change and to reinforce the global response to the threat of phenomenon by keeping a global temperature rise well below 2 degrees Celsius (2oC) above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5oC.

The Paris Agreement also aims to strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change; and establish the long-term global goal for adaptation – “to enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development and ensuring an adequate adaptation response in the context of the temperature goal” (Article 7).

Member countries were invited to submit their proposed post-2020 climate action plans known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). This also was to include an adaptation component as part of an INDC. It was voluntary. As of February 2018, 137 countries (or 83 percent of INDCs) included this in their INDCs. The INDCs reflect the status accorded by countries to the matters of adaptation.

Interestingly, most countries that included adaptation in their INDCs were developing countries, with 54 African nations as part.

Data sourced from Statista.com indicate that, as of May 2022, only 45 African countries have submitted updated NDCs, with nine submitting only the first NDC. Côte d’Ivoire (in West Africa) was the last country to release an updated NDC. It is important to note that none of the nine nations is in West Africa.

Where does West Africa stand with NDCs?

A report by the OECD’s West Africa and Sahel secretariat indicates that all 17 nations of the region have submitted their NDCs after the Paris Agreement. Additionally, all 17 have set their targets since first submitting their NDCs. In particular, 16 of the 17 countries in the region have set economy-wide targets. The OECD report (Nov. 2022) further said the West African countries have expanded the scope of greenhouse gases or sectors covered, improved monitoring, reporting, and verification, enhanced the quality of data underlying projections, and even raised mitigation targets.

Nigeria, the West Africa regional behemoth, had its NDC updated in 2021, with a recommitment to an unconditional contribution to reducing emissions 20 percent below business as usual (BAU) by 2030; and a 47 percent contribution conditional on international support. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates Nigeria’s 2030 unconditional target as 1.5°C compatible. The CAT rates Nigeria’s climate targets and policies as “Almost sufficient”. The “almost sufficient” rating specifies that Nigeria’s climate commitments are not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit, but could be with moderate improvements. CAT also, adduces that, though Nigeria’s policies represent a fair contribution to limiting global warming with its own resources, to actually reduce emissions to a level consistent with 1.5°C will need resources to decarbonise its economy, and will require international support to do so.

Despite being “active participants in the global climate agenda”, West African nations combined, do not yet deploy an ambitious NDC, the type we see with  Australia, Brazil, China, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, and Russia.

Ironically, all of these are among the notorious global carbon emitters. In particular, several of the region’s countries have capacity-building data quality gaps requiring mostly external financial assistance to realise these. By back-of-the-envelop calculations, climate adaptation, and green growth experts view that, with additional financial and technical resources, great potential awaits the West Africa post-2030.

The OECD November 2022 report projects that, looking ahead, the region could boost credibility of targets in future NDC updates by enhancing the transparency of models behind them, especially adopting the examples of Benin Republic, Ghana, Guinea Conakry, Liberia, and Togo.

Funding gaps blighting sustainable NDC

Given the progress so far recorded by West Africa’s nations with their NDCs, funding gaps stand hugely in the way of realising a sustainable emissions reduction and climate adaptation programme. For example, the region’s NDCs alone require $221.2 billion to $279.7 billion for mitigation; while an additional $61.4 billion to $88.8 billion will be needed to undertake adaption by 2030. Unhappily, only $83.3 billion was mobilised for all developing countries in 2020. Of this, roughly 24 percent reached Africa as a whole, while as little as $6 million got to West Africa. This translates to that, West Africa, with a population of 429 million, has so far mobilised 0.002 percent of the lower bound estimate of its NDC needs. Even gloomier is the realisation that majority of the region’s nations were unable to access the funds during the period under review under the existing financing system; more so, when it comes to private finance. Thus far, almost all the NDCs look up to the private sector as a potential source of finance. The OECD counsels that the mechanism to access climate funds (especially for West Africa) needs to consider the challenges the region faces, given its limited capacity to navigate the complex and highly technical processes for securing funding.

Absence of subnational actors amid rapid urbanisation

Though the countries show signs of horizontal coordination at the national level to implement NDCs, at least interministerial cooperation, all of them rarely mention subnational actors, showing limited vertical integration. Paris Agreement is quite explicit on the role of subnational actors. According to the OECD, this situation appears challenging considering rapid urbanisation sweeping across the African continent. Additional 900 million people will live in African cities by 2050, compared to 2015, reports say. This runs the risk of creating cities that lock in emissions for decades without considering climate objectives. Therefore, exploring ways to involve local actors in implementing the Paris Agreement will be essential for West Africa, in particular, and across the continent, in general, according to the OECD report.